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LPL Research - Midyear 2017 Outlook

An important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was finally able to start following through on its projected rate hike path, raising rates twice in just over a three-month period. By doing so, the Fed showed increasing trust that the economy has largely met its dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment, that the economy is progressively able to stand on its own two feet, and that fiscal policy may now provide the backstop to the economy that monetary policy has provided throughout the expansion. The gaugessay growth engines and market drivers may have changed: power down monetary policy, power up business fundamentals, and potentially take fiscal policy and economic growth off standby. Click here to read more.

Recession Watch Dashboard Updated June 2017

Our Recession Watch Dashboard is showing an overall low risk of a recession starting within the next year.

Because data for the components of this dashboard are available with varying frequencies, some will be more current than others. In all cases, we have used the latest data available. Click here to read more.

The Over Index

After seven consecutive positive years for stocks, how much longer can this bull market continue? Perhaps just as importantly, what are the warning signs that a bull market is coming to an end? LPL Research believes that to understand what causes markets to crack, you need to study the economic cycle. None of us can forget the experience of the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009, and since 1970 every bear market except one (1987) has been associated with a recession. Therefore, having a respectful understanding of what ends economic expansions is key to prudent portfolio management. Click here here to read more.

 

LPL Research Retirement Index

The LPL Research Retirement Environment Index is a holistic ranking of the attractiveness of each U.S. state as a retirement destination. This unique index looks specifically at the 45- to 64-year-old cohort (pre-retirees) and collectively assesses strengths and weaknesses of pre-retiree desirability on a state level, rather than city or regional level. The 45- to 64-year-old cohort is the largest subset of the Baby Boomer generation but also includes some older members of Generation X. States are evaluated on sixkey factors, each with its own supporting metrics, to evaluate overall desirability for retirement. Click here to read more.